an hour ago by cm2012
Total daily users increased 8% but ad revenue improved 46% because of competition for ad slots. This is because FB targeting works really well, better than any other attention based ad channel. 90% of major ad spenders on FB nowadays are very direct response, ROI based marketing orgs, and they spend where the results are.
an hour ago by kstrauser
> In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, we expect year-over-year total revenue growth rates to significantly decelerate sequentially as we lap periods of increasingly strong growth. We continue to expect increased ad targeting headwinds in 2021 from regulatory and platform changes, notably the recently-launched iOS 14.5 update, which we expect to begin having an impact in the second quarter. This is factored into our outlook.
This isn't the best time to depend on an anti-privacy business model, it seems.
25 minutes ago by hiralal
Ehh - Facebook will just show more ads to account for the gap due to less personalized ads. And users will still come back..
an hour ago by s3r3nity
> Facebook daily active users (DAUs) ā DAUs were 1.88 billion on average for March 2021, an increase of 8% year-over-year.
> Facebook monthly active users (MAUs) ā MAUs were 2.85 billion as of March 31, 2021, an increase of 10% year-over-year.
Let this be another sign that Facebook's demise is greatly exaggerated: their daily & monthly active user counts are _still growing_ ... and by non-trivial amounts.
Almost _2 billion_ people visit Facebook at least once _daily_ .... that's mind-blowing.
Yes, I know: the common HN refrain is "how many are fake / bot accounts?" etc. etc. Until that's proven to be a real problem, which would lead to significant lawsuits for misleading shareholders, I will lean on the hypothesis that the significant majority of this growth is "real."
You can play "chicken little" all you want and say "Facebook will go away just like MySpace," but doubters should be sweating right now, as the numbers refuse to show that.
an hour ago by jjmorrison
Bots or not - that $25B is coming from somewhere.
I'm most sad that so many smart humans are working on this of all the important problems in the world.
Makes loads of money though, so won't change until incentives change.
36 minutes ago by truth_
Not completely unrelated: FB makes killer programming tools loved by most.
- PyTorch for Deep Learning overtook TensorFlow in Academia and Competitions and breathing down the neck in Industry despite the latter having significant inertia.
- React.js is THE hottest frontend framework now.
- GraphQL is highly adopted in the industry.
I want FB to exist as long as possible and very successfully as I do not want the tools to go away. I have worked with two of the three, and I love them. It had made me fond of and loyal to FB and FAIR.
8 minutes ago by azangru
> React.js is THE hottest frontend framework now.
I am not quite sure what you mean by "the hottest". Would you say that jquery was THE hottest frontend library circa 2014, or that Wordpress it THE hottest CMS now?
React is hugely popular, no doubt about it. It absolutely was the hottest frontend framework somewhere around 2015. It's more complicated now, I think.
38 minutes ago by cm2012
Solving world hunger is obviously better than ads, but I'd say in the scheme of things tech people spend their time on, ad improvements is middling in importance? It's not the bottom.
Good ad targeting means:
1) New small businesses (on Shopify) can reach customers without going through retail gatekeepers. Ask any Shopify seller, nothing beats FB.
2) New challenger SaaS brands can get in front of customers to compete with mammoth corporate brands with worse software (I see this all the time on my job).
3) Without good ad targeting, only bottom hanging fruit advertisers that appeal to the lowest common denominator can afford to spend. Weight loss, teeth whitening, etc. Good ad targeting means a better user experience with ads.
34 minutes ago by s3r3nity
> I'm most sad that so many smart humans are working on this of all the important problems in the world.
Depends upon values and perspectives of the problem. Part of me agrees with you, and yet part of me is sympathetic to the goals of connecting the world, encouraging community discussion, and bringing transparency to social issues and reducing the power of governments to control the narratives. - to the point that many governments fear FB and ban it outright. (e.g. Do you think China banned Facebook because of "misinformation?" Or that the ratio of real information to misinformation was a little too much for them to lose control of their propaganda narratives?)
Would I say that's more important than sustainable farming / agricultural tech? I don't think so - but to each their own.
an hour ago by JohnJamesRambo
Why would I be sweating that Facebook is adding users? Disappointed, more like, because the science shows that Facebook actively damages peopleās mental health and I hope we all want people to feel good. Your numbers show that a almost 2 billion people feel worse each day from Facebook.
25 minutes ago by s3r3nity
If I drink enough water to kill myself from water poisoning / overhydration, that isn't a good reason to ban water. It's more like "user error."
Too much of _anything_ is bad.
So it's a strong claim to say "2 billion people feel worse each day," when it could be that the majority use it in moderation and probably feel some positive utility from it.
38 minutes ago by nine_k
Quite interesting that the ad revenue growth is mostly from ads commanding a higher price, and only marginally because they serve more ads.
FB's targeting is pretty good, if for no other reason then because they see all the social stuff users do even without the need for crutches like third-party cookies. Likely customers are willing to pay increasingly more for a well-targeted ad.
an hour ago by gogopuppygogo
Facebook has made their product emotionally addictive.
Their biggest threat now is regulatory changes to consumer data. I havenāt read the filings but Iād expect their lobbying efforts to be in full gear.
an hour ago by jjmorrison
> 8% YoY user growth and 46% YoY revenue growth
Curious how well understood the mechanics are of this. I've been fascinated by how clever the whole model works. They know revenue growth needs to outpace their ability to increase available ad space (so user growth or attention growth). So they are heavily reliant on data to improve ad targeting so they can drive more conversion per ad impression.
The power of the ad auction model is that 100% of the improved efficiency of ad targeting is translated to revenue for Facebook. Advertisers will pay $X for a conversion in their ROI calculations - so Facebook will get the maximum amount the market will pay a certain for a given conversion. Advertisers are actually a little worst off as targeting gets better - the conversion cost stays the same and the number of impressions goes down.
To keep growing revenue at this pace, Facebook needs to continually feed the beast with better and better data so they can squeeze more and more conversions out of their existing ad space.
The only other two ways to grow revenue is more users and more time from users. Which is getting tougher and tougher. That's why this Apple fight is so important to Facebook - it's really their lifeblood right now.
10 minutes ago by randomsearch
Itās odd that their DAU are increasing, because at least in the western countries Iām aware of, young people donāt use Facebook much. So Iād expect a gentle decline over time. Where is the growth coming from?
7 minutes ago by nerfhammer
young people use instagram constantly
an hour ago by cm2012
Exactly this. FB ad targeting is revolutionary for companies to match with prospective users. I've managed 50m+ in FB spend, getting start-ups in front of some really niche audiences, and nothing compares to the FB algo.
an hour ago by wsetchell
Increased signal (e.g. more or different data) is one of the many levers to increase ad value.
Without changing signals you can still make meaningful long term progress through ranking, delivery, and format improvements.
an hour ago by jjmorrison
True. They do seem quite obsessed with slurping more data. i wonder how much it would hurt them in the long term if they couldn't get more.
an hour ago by ah88
They have been focusing on selling other products besides ads so curious how much of that revenue growth is from ads vs other products.
an hour ago by bigzyg33k
They mention this in the earnings report
Advertising accounted for $25.4 Billion of their revenue, up from $17.4 Billion in the same quarter last year, an increase of 46%
Revenue from other sources was $732 Million, up from $297 million in the same quarter last year, an increase of 146%
an hour ago by sanxiyn
It's all there in financial statement. It's all ads.
an hour ago by jjmorrison
Not sure if the breakdown is exact but financials say $25B in ads, and $700M in "other"
an hour ago by throwaway5752
What is q4cdn? I did a whois, and I tried to find more details. I'm not sure why this wouldn't be directly from a Facebook IR or news wire hosted press release. I'd like to have some knowledge of who/what is running it, since this is a pdf.
an hour ago by opheliate
Just a guess: Probably the CDN for Q4, which would make sense, as theyāre an investor relations company. https://www.q4inc.com/
an hour ago by throwaway5752
Thanks! I bet you're right, https://www.q4inc.com/soc2/default.aspx agrees with what based on what they say about their stack.
https://www.q4inc.com/products/surveillance/default.aspx is a bit disturbing, but I can understand why it sells.
an hour ago by fred256
The FB investor relations site links to the exact same URL.
an hour ago by throwaway5752
I was updating my post accordingly: https://investor.fb.com/investor-events/event-details/2021/F... links to it.
I'm still curious, but less concerned. They appear to use Cloudflare, AWS for DNS, and registered through Godaddy. I just haven't figured out who runs it. I wouldn't be surprised if it if were via business wire, but I'm surprised it's hard to find out. Multiple companys' IR teams seem to use it based on some cursory querying.
an hour ago by fred256
Looks like q4inc.com is the corporate website. (Oh I see this was mentioned in a sibling comment already)
33 minutes ago by subpixel
I wonder how many FB users are like me: people who don't identify as FB users bur who do actually use FB out of necessity, and pretty often.
I've moved several times in the last year, and (unfortunately) FB is how I:
- connect with local groups of parents (FB has no competition in this vertical)
- connect with local athletic groups (Strava and others exist, but try planning an outing on Strava)
- see what the local take-out restaurants are offering today (FB and Instagram own this niche, which has exploded)
- get recommendations on contractors, service providers, etc (often passively, by searching groups for recent answers to someone else asking the same question)
- find out about when local organizations or companies I care about are doing something (you can't really rely on libraries etc. announcing things via email anymore, but they won't do anything without posting to FB)
On top of all this, I use Instagram, not only to post photos but also to explore the area around where we've settled. I search by location a ton and have found it's a great way to learn about what people do and where they go when you're not able to meet people and get recommendations the normal way.
So yeah, I rage quit previously but FB has got my number again.
31 minutes ago by mam3
"I am not really a car driver but i use car when i need it."
Doesnt make more sense that what you say. You ARE a facebook user.
16 minutes ago by Udik
Sounds like he's using it in an entirely different way from what used to be Facebook's focus. It's not keeping in touch with other people any more, but rather a collection of small local-centric services. (Take away restaurants, parents group, tradesmen, library, etc.).
18 minutes ago by undefined
14 minutes ago by Dejital
After I started posting "Stories" with Facebook, which shows you viewers as well as "likers", I was surprised by how many lurkers there really are. Even lurkers are very much Facebook users, especially when serving ads is concerned.
35 minutes ago by srckinase123
How does one learn to analyze these quarterly results and other financial reports (e.g., 10-K)? What books/videos/courses would take an absolute beginner towards becoming an expert? Would proper analysis of these results/other financial reports enable one to decide which company is a worthwhile investment? It seems like learning accounting would be a good start.
29 minutes ago by goler
I recommend Aswath Damodaran's valuation course: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcasteq...
If you don't have time for the full course, I've also heard good things about Damodaran's Little Book of Valuation.
23 minutes ago by srckinase123
Thanks for the course link. Does the course assume any prerequisites?
6 minutes ago by goler
Not really, but familiarity with accounting terms and some basic investment concepts helps. The course is designed for NYU MBA students and many of them have already taken corporate finance which gives them a head start. Damodaran puts all of the course info online (notes, lectures, emails to students, etc), though, which allows you to go at your own pace. The emails sometimes contain pointers to helpful supplemental materials.
If you check out the email archives [1], you'll see that Damodaran wrote this in the first message: "1. Preclass work: I know that some of you are worried about the class but relax! If you can add, subtract, divide and multiply, you are pretty much home freeā¦ In are you have forgotten your accounting, I have added my version (which would probably not be approved of by your accounting professor) of an accounting class to my website: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcastac... If you want to get a jump on the class, you can go to the class web page: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/equity.ht... "
[1] http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/eqemail.h...
41 minutes ago by halotrope
You did not see anything yet. Wait till they put ads in WhatsApp.
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